--- title: "Expiry Day Squeeze, Bulls vs The Wall at | The Tanmay Edge" description: "Expiry Day Squeeze, Bulls vs The Wall at 23,500. The Tanmay Edge EP02, 17 Mar 2026: pre-market analysis for Indian markets in 7 minutes." source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-03-17" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP02 # Expiry day squeeze Bulls vs the Wall at 23,500 Pre-market analysis for Indian markets, Tuesday 17 Mar 2026. * **6:30**listen * **Pre trail**before the public trail * **Tue 17 Mar 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing Expiry day squeeze EP02, 17 Mar, 6:30 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes6:30 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## Before the public trail. This episode aired before the public prediction trail began on 29 Apr 2026, so it carries no grade on the five call scale and is not counted in the season hit rate. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 3 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **03**Trading plan & levelsGap up on expiry day is a trap or a launch, 23,500 tells you which one it is. 2. **03**Trading plan & levelsGap up on expiry day is a trap or a launch, 23,500 tells you which one it is. 3. **03**Trading plan & levelsGap up on expiry day is a trap or a launch, 23,500 tells you which one it is. Market overview **23,496**GIFT Nifty **2.77%**Asia broadly green, KOSPI **1.11%**Hang Seng **$100**Brent crude still above "You don't need more information. You need the right information, here's what matters today." GIFT Nifty at 23,496. Asia broadly green, KOSPI +2.77%, Hang Seng +1.11%, Taiwan +1.77%. Brent crude still above $100 at $102.95. But don't let the green fool you Read the chapter Options & GEX analysis **4.5%**VIX dropped **23,750**Volume stay long **140 points**Wants to gap **23,500**Points straight "Sixteen years on these desks taught me one thing, the market always telegraphs. You just have to know where to look." "That's not a prediction. That's preparation. There's a difference, and that difference is your edge." VIX dropped 4.5% yesterday, that's the Read the chapter Trading plan & levels **23,500**Trap or launch Gap up on expiry day is a trap or a launch, 23,500 tells you which one it is. FIIs haven't covered their shorts yet (-2.48L contracts), until they do, every rally is suspect. TK Screener Fast turned Buy on Nifty, that's the gap doing its job. But Combined is Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Market overview "You don't need more information. You need the right information, here's what matters today." GIFT Nifty at 23,496. Asia broadly green, KOSPI +2.77%, Hang Seng +1.11%, Taiwan +1.77%. Brent crude still above $100 at $102.95. But don't let the green fool you: FIIs sold another ₹9,365 crores in cash on Monday and are sitting on 2.48 lakh short index futures contracts. The structural sell hasn't changed. ### *02*Options & GEX analysis "Sixteen years on these desks taught me one thing, the market always telegraphs. You just have to know where to look." "That's not a prediction. That's preparation. There's a difference, and that difference is your edge." VIX dropped 4.5% yesterday, that's the market saying panic is easing. Not bullish. Just less bearish. My trade idea: watch 23,500 in first 30 minutes. Rejection = sell. Break with volume = stay long for 23,750. No middle ground on expiry day. It's expiry day, and Nifty wants to gap up 140 points straight into the 23,500 wall. In options: 23,500 has 52 lakh calls sold against it, the wall of the day. IV at 26.03 with straddles at ₹410. TK Screener says sell IV today. VIX dropped 4.5% yesterday, panic easing but trend still down. Key levels: 23,500 resistance, 23,300 support, 23,200 secondary. Watch the first 30 minutes. ### *03*Trading plan & levels Gap up on expiry day is a trap or a launch, 23,500 tells you which one it is. FIIs haven't covered their shorts yet (-2.48L contracts), until they do, every rally is suspect. TK Screener Fast turned Buy on Nifty, that's the gap doing its job. But Combined is still Sell. 05In his words You don't need more information. You need the right information, here's what matters today. Sixteen years on these desks taught me one thing, the market always telegraphs. You just have to know where to look. That's not a prediction. That's preparation. There's a difference, and that difference is your edge. Questions ## EP02, in plain words. What does EP02 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP02, Tuesday 17 Mar 2026, 6:30, in 3 chapters: Market overview; Options & GEX analysis; Trading plan & levels. How did the calls in EP02 score?It aired before the public prediction trail began on 29 Apr 2026, so it is not graded on the five call scale and not counted in the season hit rate. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser, and strategy figures on RupeeCase are model, back tested. Explore next ## Learn what the episode covers. * [Free module 7.4INR, FII Flows, and Global Market Linkages10 min read](/learn/path-7/module-7-4-inr-fii-flows-global-linkages) * [StrategyNifty 50 Equal Weight strategyNifty 50, 50 stocks, every 4 weeks](/strategies/nifty-50-equal-weight) * [Podcast archiveMarch 2026 episodesEvery call that month, graded](/podcast/2026-03/) Community ## Join my WhatsApp group. Scan the code, fillFill one short form, and join my WhatsApp group. Slides, sources, factsheets and the rebalance logs live there, and members join a daily Google Meet with me. [Sign up for RupeeCase](https://invest.rupeecase.com/signup) [Join the WhatsApp group](https://forms.gle/C6HMtM1Z2GfeocQV7) [One form, one group](https://forms.gle/C6HMtM1Z2GfeocQV7)Scan with your phone camera 07Read next ## Behind the calls. [Learn, module 2.3Risk Metrics That MatterEvery strategy shows you a CAGR. Fewer show you the drawdown. Almost none explain what the Sharpe ratio actually means.Intermediate, 8 min](/learn/path-2/module-2-3-risk-metrics-that-matter)[Learn, module 6.6Derivatives: Futures and Options for the Systematic InvestorThe F&O market in India is one of the largest derivatives markets in the world by volume. Most retail participants loseIntermediate, 8 min](/learn/path-6/module-6-6-derivatives-futures-options) [StrategyMidcap Smallcap40 stocks, fortnightly rotation. Momentum on the NSE Universe under 2000.Model, back tested CAGR 42.6%, as of 27 Apr 2026. Risk Moderately High.](/strategies/midcap-smallcap) Share [X](https://x.com/intent/tweet?text=Expiry%20day%20squeeze%20%7C%20The%20Tanmay%20Edge%20EP02&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rupeecase.com%2Fpodcast%2Fepisodes%2F2026-03-17) [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/sharing/share-offsite/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rupeecase.com%2Fpodcast%2Fepisodes%2F2026-03-17) Copy link [All episodes](/podcast/) Market commentary for education only. Not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser. Strategy figures are model, back tested.