{ "asOf": "2026-09-16", "note": "Last 10 graded episodes, sourced from /mnt/.auto-memory/project_epNN_*_eod.md and project_epNN_*_graded.md files. Update on every enrichment run | grade previous EP, add new EP as TBD.", "episodes": [ { "ep": 125, "date": "2026-09-16", "dayOfWeek": "Wed", "title": "Breadth Broke To 0.164, And The Only Bid Left Was IT", "tag": "TK graded his own previous episode 1.5 out of 5, the lowest of the run The open came near 23,576, nearly double the gap given The magnet at 23,450 to 23,500 was overshot by 120 points at the open Support at 23,400 and 23,300 both broke easily The low took out the stated band of 23,150 to 23,650 180 points of implied move were called, the actual range was almost 470 Settled 23,118, which was also the low no buyers at the end Max pain recomputed from the settlement file is 23,200, not Friday s 23,450 The settle landed 80 points from the live magnet and 331 from the quoted one The pin did not fail the magnet walked 300 points then pinned inside 32", "minutes": 9, "grade": { "score": "TBD", "hits": 0, "partial": 0, "mech": 0, "miss": 0 } }, { "ep": 124, "date": "2026-09-15", "dayOfWeek": "Tue", "title": "The Writers Swapped Sides On The Last Day, And We Gap Up Onto The Magnet | Nifty Expiry", "tag": "Headline PCR flipped 0.640 to 1.05 in a single session But most of the call cut was far strike housekeeping at 25,000 and above Near money 22,900 to 23,900 calls plus 42 lakh against puts plus 2.61 crore Near money PCR 1.217, six to one in favour of puts Max pain 23,450, down 50 points from Thursday, with spot 51 points below it 23,300 is the new both sides strike, 98 points below spot Biggest put add on the board 76 lakh at 23,300, second biggest call add 18.47 lakh The both sides strike migrated 23,800 to 23,300, down 100 a session 23,300 now carries 1.38 crore puts, the biggest near money block Both writers abandoned 23,500 calls cut 25 lakh, puts", "minutes": 12, "grade": { "score": "1.5/5", "hits": 1, "partial": 0, "mech": 1, "miss": 4, "note": "Graded Wed 16 Sep against the Tue settlement 23,118.60, and graded hard by TK himself. Almost every level was wrong. The open came near 23,576 against a called 40 to 90 point gap, nearly double, and 120 points above the 23,450 magnet the plan said we would open on. Support at 23,400 and 23,300 both broke easily. The band of 23,150 to 23,650 was taken out at the low. And the 180 points of implied move left after the gap met an actual range of almost 470. The settle was also the low, so there were no buyers at the end. What survives is the mechanism rather than the call: max pain recomputed from the settlement file was 23,200, the settle landed 80 points from it, and the magnet walked 300 points intraday before pinning inside 32, exactly as the Sensex did on 11 September. The error was using a four day old snapshot on an expiry day, against a rule TK had already written down. One and a half out of five." } }, { "ep": 123, "date": "2026-09-11", "dayOfWeek": "Fri", "title": "I Called The Pin And It Landed Inside Three Points. I Also Told You To Buy Volatility And That Leg Lost 349. | Brent Went Vertical To 107.85 | The Nikkei Is Down Three Percent", "tag": "The Sensex pin landed three points out, but the long volatility leg lost Nifty closed 23,477, up 46, while 934 stocks rose against 1,667 that fell Advance decline 0.56, the same ratio as the day the index fell India VIX gave back Wednesday s bid in one session to 11.72 Adani Ports minus 0.39 from plus 3.80 and Tata Steel minus 1.04 from plus 2.50 IT stopped falling after exactly one day, minus 0.08 after minus 3.24 Max pain came to the market 23,600 to 23,500, only 22 points above spot Calls added 2.48 crore against 2.41 crore of puts, the first even day of the run The both sides strike migrated a third time, 23,700 to 23,500 to 23,400 Biggest call", "minutes": 9, "grade": { "score": "4.5/5", "hits": 4, "partial": 1, "mech": 0, "miss": 0, "note": "Graded Tue 15 Sep against the Fri close 23,398. Three stated calls and all three landed. The plan said we would open below the band, that volatility would rise, and that the band would shift lower: the session opened under it, VIX rose 4 percent to 12.26, and the range of 23,231 to 23,448 sat entirely inside the lower half. The map level of 23,400 settled at 23,398, one point away. And the honest half was right too, maybe nothing to trade, with the straddle moving 210 to 208 across the whole session. The partial is that the gap down was given as 140 to 190 points against a session that reversed 167 points off its low. Four and a half out of five." } }, { "ep": 122, "date": "2026-09-10", "dayOfWeek": "Thu", "title": "Three Indices Closed At The Exact Low, And Brent Crossed 100 And Held It All Night | There Is No Green In Asia This Morning | Both Sides Just Piled Onto 23,500", "tag": "Nifty, Sensex and BANKEX all closed at the exact low of the day Nifty settled 23,431, down 203.60, with a low of 23,431 Sensex settled 74,764, also its low, and the BANKEX did the same India VIX rose 6.5 percent to just under 12, the first real volatility bid of the run IT index fell 3.24 percent with zero names up and ten down Infosys added 3.29 crore shares of futures OI while the future fell 4.64 percent HDFC Bank added 5.44 crore of OI while it fell 2.07 percent Nifty 50 fell 0.86 while the Next 50 fell only 0.13 Cash market 938 up against 1,671 down, the damage at the top and spreading Biggest call add 72 lakh and biggest put add 35 lakh, both at", "minutes": 9, "grade": { "score": "4.5/5", "hits": 4, "partial": 1, "mech": 0, "miss": 0, "note": "Graded Fri 11 Sep against the Thu Sensex settlement 74,902.59. Close to a textbook expiry call: he said open below 75,000, the magnet should hold it, and lose it and go 500 lower. It opened 74,742.54, never reclaimed 75,000 with a high 89 points short, never broke down, and settled 74,902.59 against a final max pain of 74,900. A pin inside three points. The 74,000 level named as the downside was shown to be the heaviest put on the board rather than a round number. What did not work was the other half of the same call: the long straddle and strangle instruction lost on a 312 point range against a 452 straddle, so being right about where it settles and wrong about how far it travels is one call, not two. Four and a half out of five." } }, { "ep": 121, "date": "2026-09-09", "dayOfWeek": "Wed", "title": "I Got The Direction Wrong And The Fly Lost 73.55, Which Is The Exact Number I Published Before I Entered It | The Wings Saved 33 Points | And My Model Projected The Settlement To Within 2.85 Points", "tag": "The iron fly lost its maximum, the exact figure published before entry The stated invalidation fired 23,700 decides it, then 23,650 and 23,600 below Low 23,623 and settle 23,635, right between the two named levels Nifty down 144 points, high 23,758 in the first minutes and never touched again Sensex fell harder, down 555 points to 75,577 Nifty 50 minus 0.61 while the Next 50 rose 0.52 with 32 up and 17 down Five large banks and Reliance took the index down alone India Defence rose 2.5 percent with 18 of 19 names higher Day one of the new series added 4.76 crore calls and 2.99 crore puts Biggest call add 41 lakh and biggest put add 24 lakh, both at", "minutes": 10, "grade": { "score": "4/5", "hits": 4, "partial": 0, "mech": 0, "miss": 1, "note": "Graded Thu 10 Sep against the Wed close 23,431. The level call was the day. 23,600 was named as the first question and 23,700 as the heavy resistance and the second question, and neither was reclaimed: the index closed at its exact low with no bounce into the close. The read that the foreign futures short was the only position that had been right the whole way down held again as that book went to a fresh high. And the macro line landed inside a session, Brent called at sixty six cents from 100 and settling 101.21. The miss was the gap estimate, given as 40 to 60 points against a session that kept going. Four on five." } }, { "ep": 120, "date": "2026-09-08", "dayOfWeek": "Tue", "title": "Friday's Board Was Built For A Rally And It Took One Session To Take The Whole Thing Apart | 659 Lakh Calls Written, 189 Lakh Puts Covered | I Am Still Buying The Dip Into 23,600 With An Expiry Target Of 23,900", "tag": "6.59 crore calls written and 1.89 crore puts bought back in a single session The exact mirror of Friday, when 1.07 crore calls were covered and 2.90 crore puts written PCR collapsed from 0.844 to 0.556, one session undoing four days of writing The 23,900 call landed high 23,890, never touched, by 10 points The 23,900 put went 59.85 to 128.80 and 75.84 lakh of open interest came off Infosys was called as the IT tell and fell 3.76 percent Nifty closed 23,779, opened 23,883, high 23,890 in the first minutes, low 23,737 Breadth 13 up and 37 down in the Nifty 50, 1,096 up against 1,760 down overall The Sensex low was not its close, ending a four session", "minutes": 11, "grade": { "score": "3/5", "hits": 2, "partial": 1, "mech": 0, "miss": 2, "note": "Graded Wed 09 Sep against the Tue settlement 23,635. The direction was wrong. The target of 23,900 needed an outsized day and never came, the high stopped at 23,758, and the iron fly held into settlement paid out its full published maximum. What was right was everything around the trade. The plan named 23,700 as the level that decides it and named 23,650 and 23,600 as the sidelines levels below: the market broke early, the low printed 23,623 and it settled 23,635, between the two. And the cap was published before entry, so a losing day cost a known number rather than an open one. Direction wrong, risk right. Three on five." } }, { "ep": 119, "date": "2026-09-07", "dayOfWeek": "Mon", "title": "The Board Got Ready For A Rally And The Close Did Not Get The Memo | Calls Covered, Puts Written, Volatility Crushed, And Now We Open 35 Points Lower | The First Question Today Is 23,900, Not 24,000", "tag": "Every positioning signal on the options board moved up on Friday, then the market closed on its low Retail stopped selling puts for the first time in six sessions Nifty finished 23,897, up a tenth of a percent, and 1.85 points off its own low At 11 30 it was 24,005 and gave back 108 points into the close Sensex closed 76,515, its exact low, 367 points below the afternoon high Fourth time in ten sessions an index closed at its own high or low India VIX fell 6.44 percent to 10.61, under 11 for the first time this series Realty fell 0.66 after being Thursday s best sector at plus 2.58 Nine cables names broke together KEI minus 8.95 on 1,173 crore of", "minutes": 10, "grade": { "score": "4/5", "hits": 4, "partial": 0, "mech": 0, "miss": 1, "note": "Graded Tue 08 Sep against the Mon close 23,779. The headline call was the day: it is not whether we take 24,000, it is whether we reclaim 23,900, and if we fail there the put writers from Friday are in trouble. The high came in at 23,890, ten points short. The 23,900 put went 59.85 to 128.80 and 75.84 lakh of open interest came off as those writers covered. The Infosys read was right too, flagged as the IT tell off a 3.23 percent New York fall, and it fell 3.76 percent here with ten of ten IT names down. The miss was the reclaim itself: the plan wanted 23,900 back and the market never got there, so the constructive half never triggered. Four on five." } }, { "ep": 118, "date": "2026-09-04", "dayOfWeek": "Fri", "title": "It Is Not Volume. It Is One Way Flow. | Three Tests In Three Days Settle The Closing Auction Argument | On Expiry Day It Mispriced One Stock Out Of 210 Against 72 Out Of 1,955 Outside It", "tag": "Third test run on Sensex expiry, the busiest session of the week The auction mispriced one stock of 210 by more than 2 percent The non auction market managed 72 of 1,955, so the auction was seven times better All three tests rebalance four times worse, ordinary day three times better, expiry seven times better Verdict the auction handles volume, it does not handle one way flow Nifty low 23,873 equalled its close, Sensex low 76,152 equalled its close, Bankex the same Three indices printed the day low as the close, two sessions after printing the high Sensex indicative flashed 74,373 at 15 20 against a 76,152 settle, 1,780 points Third time on record", "minutes": 13, "grade": { "score": "3.5/5", "hits": 2, "partial": 2, "mech": 0, "miss": 1, "note": "Graded Mon 07 Sep against the Fri close 23,897. TK: the open came in 40 points under the call and the rotation trade reversed. The gap up near 23,950 to 23,980 did not arrive as framed, and the real trade this week is smallcaps, defence, chemicals and energy was exactly wrong for a session where the large caps led and the broader market gave back Thursday. What held was the structure: 24,000 was called the most defended strike and it capped the day at 24,005, the 23,750 to 24,000 band contained the session, and the spreads only discipline paid on a day that closed on its low. Levels right, rotation wrong. Three and a half out of five." } }, { "ep": 117, "date": "2026-09-03", "dayOfWeek": "Thu", "title": "I Tested My Own Finding And It Did Not Repeat | Correlation Minus 0.712 On The Rebalance Day, Minus 0.087 On A Normal One | 44 Stocks Mispriced Then, One Now | The Auction Is Not Broken, It Is Thin", "tag": "The EP116 finding did not replicate on a control day correlation minus 0.087, slope minus 0.234 Against minus 0.712 and slope minus 1.037 on the MSCI rebalance pair 44 of the 210 auction stocks printed more than 2 percent from their own average on rebalance day On a normal day three of 210 did, and the non auction control was worse at 4.2 percent On an ordinary Wednesday the auction beat everything else in the market On the rebalance day it was four times worse Verdict the auction is not broken, it is thin, a depth problem not a design problem Nifty high 23,914 equalled its close, and the Sensex high 76,570 equalled its close Three indices printed the", "minutes": 9, "grade": { "score": "4/5", "hits": 4, "partial": 0, "mech": 0, "miss": 1, "note": "Graded Fri 04 Sep against the Thu close 23,873. TK: the actual expiry got moved in the cash session, but the rest of the day worked out superbly. The fade call was the day: a gap up into 24,000 with max pain below it was flagged as a setup for a fade and not a follow through, and the tape faded. Do not chase the open held. The magnet is behind us framing was right, and the band contained the session. The miss was the settlement itself, moved again by the closing auction, which no intraday plan can price. Four on five." } }, { "ep": 116, "date": "2026-09-02", "dayOfWeek": "Wed", "title": "The Auction Gave It All Back | 69 of the 70 Stocks It Marked Up on Monday Fell on Tuesday | Correlation Minus 0.712 Inside the Auction, Zero Outside It | ITC Printed 255.50, Closed 266.60", "tag": "ITC traded 262.30 for six hours, the auction printed 255.50, next day it closed 266.60 69 of the 70 stocks marked more than 1 percent up on Monday fell the next day Correlation inside the auction list minus 0.712, outside it plus 0.018 Regression slope minus 1.037, the entire dislocation given back one for one 210 futures and options names tested against a 1,975 name control group Names marked up more than 1 percent averaged minus 2.73 percent the next day 40 of the 44 names printed more than 2 percent away reversed, 91 percent of the group Bharti Airtel printed 1,811 against a traded 1,847, then closed 1,877 the next day Caveats on air one pair of", "minutes": 15, "grade": { "score": "2.5/5", "hits": 1, "partial": 1, "mech": 0, "miss": 3, "note": "Graded Thu 03 Sep against the Wed close 23,914. The conditional was right in shape: below the 23,950 gamma zone the tape was said to amplify, and it did, trending down for six hours. But the open was 198 points lower than called, the flat open near 24,030 to 24,060 never happened, and the whole day traded under the 23,930 to 24,190 band rather than inside it. 24,000 was called as tested and held on a close three sessions running and it gapped straight through at the open. Direction and level both missed, the mechanism read correctly. Two and a half out of five." } } ] }