--- title: "Blog | Systematic Investing Notes by Tanmay Kurtkoti" description: "197 short notes on returns, risk, factors, costs and behaviour, each built on a worked figure from Indian market data. By Tanmay Kurtkoti, builder of RupeeCase." source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/blog/" --- RupeeCase notes, by Tanmay Kurtkoti # Systematic investing, in plain numbers. 197 short notes on returns, risk, factors, costs and behaviour, every one built on a worked figure from Indian market data. Free, no sign up. * **197**notes * **8**topics * **6**reading paths [Start here](/blog/2026-05-11-morning-cagr-vs-rolling-returns/)Search the notes 01Not sure where to start? ## Start with one of these. [Start hereNew to systematic investing, or to RupeeCase. 10 notes.](/blog/2026-05-11-morning-cagr-vs-rolling-returns/)[What a return number hidesAnyone comparing two funds or two strategies on a return figure. 8 notes.](/blog/2026-05-11-morning-cagr-vs-rolling-returns/)[The cost stackAnyone holding a regular plan, a PMS pitch or an ETF for a SIP. 8 notes.](/blog/2026-05-02-morning-mf-cost-stack/) 02Featured ## The latest note, and two worth starting with. [Latest . Returns and risk maths . 13 minSame returns, different retirementThe same ten annual returns leave a Rs 1 crore corpus drawing Rs 6 lakh a year at Rs 125.66 lakh or Rs 39.08 lakh depending only on their order.](/blog/2026-09-05-morning-same-returns-different-retirement/)[Editor pick . Returns and risk maths . 5 minRolling returns vs CAGRA point to point CAGR is a chosen story, and the Nifty 50 TRI's rolling five year windows since 2002 ranged from minus 1.2 to plus 22.4 percent a year.](/blog/2026-05-11-morning-cagr-vs-rolling-returns/)[Editor pick . Returns and risk maths . 9 minThe volatility taxFive portfolios averaging 12 percent compound at 11.98 down to 4.00 percent depending only on volatility, so Rs 10 lakh over twenty years ends anywhere from Rs 96 lakh to Rs 22 lakh.](/blog/2026-07-31-evening-volatility-tax/) 03Topics ## Eight topics, not months. [Returns and risk mathsCAGR, rolling windows, Sharpe, drawdown, volatility drag, sequence risk and real returns.20 notes](/blog/topic/returns-risk-maths/)[FactorsMomentum, value, quality, size and low volatility.22 notes](/blog/topic/factors/)[Portfolio constructionDiversification, correlation, allocation, rebalancing, position sizing and the risk profile that decides how much of the same portfolio you can hold.33 notes](/blog/topic/portfolio-construction/)[Costs: MF, PMS, RupeeCaseWhat funds, PMS and rules based baskets really cost, what a factsheet hides, and how structure and tax change the answer.25 notes](/blog/topic/costs-mf-pms-rupeecase/)[BehaviourThe biases that cost investors money, and the market plumbing (settlement, circuit breakers, flows, stop orders) that catches them on the worst day.27 notes](/blog/topic/behaviour/)[Company numbersReading ROE, cash flow, leverage, goodwill, buybacks and splits past the headline, with the lines a press release leaves out.24 notes](/blog/topic/company-numbers/)[Personal finance and taxSIPs, loans, insurance, emergency funds, goals and the tax lines (exemptions, cliffs, lock ins) that decide what you keep.24 notes](/blog/topic/personal-finance-tax/)[Strategy notesDated notes on individual RupeeCase cards and the shelf.22 notes](/blog/topic/strategy-notes/) 04Reading paths ## Six lines through the notes. Each path is a line and each note a stop. Tap a line to ride it; every path takes under an hour. 1. 06Reading a company8 notes, 61 min 2. 06Reading a company8 notes, 61 min 3. 06Reading a company8 notes, 61 min 4. 06Reading a company8 notes, 61 min 5. 06Reading a company8 notes, 61 min 6. 06Reading a company8 notes, 61 min Path 0110 stops ### Start here New to systematic investing, or to RupeeCase. Ten notes that cover the ideas every other note assumes. 1. [10The default decides more than the advice does](/blog/2026-08-25-evening-the-default-decides/) 2. [10The default decides more than the advice does](/blog/2026-08-25-evening-the-default-decides/) 3. [10The default decides more than the advice does](/blog/2026-08-25-evening-the-default-decides/) 4. [10The default decides more than the advice does](/blog/2026-08-25-evening-the-default-decides/) 5. [10The default decides more than the advice does](/blog/2026-08-25-evening-the-default-decides/) 6. [10The default decides more than the advice does](/blog/2026-08-25-evening-the-default-decides/) 7. [10The default decides more than the advice does](/blog/2026-08-25-evening-the-default-decides/) 8. [10The default decides more than the advice does](/blog/2026-08-25-evening-the-default-decides/) 9. [10The default decides more than the advice does](/blog/2026-08-25-evening-the-default-decides/) 10. [10The default decides more than the advice does](/blog/2026-08-25-evening-the-default-decides/) [Start at stop 1](/blog/2026-05-11-morning-cagr-vs-rolling-returns/) Path 028 stops ### What a return number hides Anyone comparing two funds or two strategies on a return figure. Eight notes on windows, averages, benchmarks and the gap between a fund and its investors. 1. [8The behaviour gap: fund return vs investor return](/blog/2026-07-07-morning-fund-vs-investor-return/) 2. [8The behaviour gap: fund return vs investor return](/blog/2026-07-07-morning-fund-vs-investor-return/) 3. [8The behaviour gap: fund return vs investor return](/blog/2026-07-07-morning-fund-vs-investor-return/) 4. [8The behaviour gap: fund return vs investor return](/blog/2026-07-07-morning-fund-vs-investor-return/) 5. [8The behaviour gap: fund return vs investor return](/blog/2026-07-07-morning-fund-vs-investor-return/) 6. [8The behaviour gap: fund return vs investor return](/blog/2026-07-07-morning-fund-vs-investor-return/) 7. [8The behaviour gap: fund return vs investor return](/blog/2026-07-07-morning-fund-vs-investor-return/) 8. [8The behaviour gap: fund return vs investor return](/blog/2026-07-07-morning-fund-vs-investor-return/) [Start at stop 1](/blog/2026-05-11-morning-cagr-vs-rolling-returns/) Path 038 stops ### The cost stack Anyone holding a regular plan, a PMS pitch or an ETF for a SIP. Eight notes on fees, commissions, structure and the tax that rides on each. 1. [8The Rs 1.25 lakh you throw away every year](/blog/2026-08-19-evening-the-exemption-you-throw-away/) 2. [8The Rs 1.25 lakh you throw away every year](/blog/2026-08-19-evening-the-exemption-you-throw-away/) 3. [8The Rs 1.25 lakh you throw away every year](/blog/2026-08-19-evening-the-exemption-you-throw-away/) 4. [8The Rs 1.25 lakh you throw away every year](/blog/2026-08-19-evening-the-exemption-you-throw-away/) 5. [8The Rs 1.25 lakh you throw away every year](/blog/2026-08-19-evening-the-exemption-you-throw-away/) 6. [8The Rs 1.25 lakh you throw away every year](/blog/2026-08-19-evening-the-exemption-you-throw-away/) 7. [8The Rs 1.25 lakh you throw away every year](/blog/2026-08-19-evening-the-exemption-you-throw-away/) 8. [8The Rs 1.25 lakh you throw away every year](/blog/2026-08-19-evening-the-exemption-you-throw-away/) [Start at stop 1](/blog/2026-05-02-morning-mf-cost-stack/) Path 048 stops ### Factor primer Readers who want to know what momentum, value, quality, size and low volatility actually are before buying a factor fund or a RupeeCase card. 1. [8Factor timing is a rear view mirror](/blog/2026-07-08-evening-factor-timing/) 2. [8Factor timing is a rear view mirror](/blog/2026-07-08-evening-factor-timing/) 3. [8Factor timing is a rear view mirror](/blog/2026-07-08-evening-factor-timing/) 4. [8Factor timing is a rear view mirror](/blog/2026-07-08-evening-factor-timing/) 5. [8Factor timing is a rear view mirror](/blog/2026-07-08-evening-factor-timing/) 6. [8Factor timing is a rear view mirror](/blog/2026-07-08-evening-factor-timing/) 7. [8Factor timing is a rear view mirror](/blog/2026-07-08-evening-factor-timing/) 8. [8Factor timing is a rear view mirror](/blog/2026-07-08-evening-factor-timing/) [Start at stop 1](/blog/2026-05-11-evening-momentum-primer/) Path 058 stops ### Before you pick a card Anyone about to choose a RupeeCase strategy. Eight notes that move the sort from CAGR to drawdown, and from the brochure to your own nerve. 1. [8Max drawdown is a record, not a limit](/blog/2026-07-17-evening-worst-so-far/) 2. [8Max drawdown is a record, not a limit](/blog/2026-07-17-evening-worst-so-far/) 3. [8Max drawdown is a record, not a limit](/blog/2026-07-17-evening-worst-so-far/) 4. [8Max drawdown is a record, not a limit](/blog/2026-07-17-evening-worst-so-far/) 5. [8Max drawdown is a record, not a limit](/blog/2026-07-17-evening-worst-so-far/) 6. [8Max drawdown is a record, not a limit](/blog/2026-07-17-evening-worst-so-far/) 7. [8Max drawdown is a record, not a limit](/blog/2026-07-17-evening-worst-so-far/) 8. [8Max drawdown is a record, not a limit](/blog/2026-07-17-evening-worst-so-far/) [Start at stop 1](/blog/2026-05-03-evening-risk-profile-fit/) Path 068 stops ### Reading a company Stock pickers and anyone reading a results filing. Eight notes that go from the ROE headline to the cash flow statement and the notes. 1. [8The buyback illusion](/blog/2026-07-26-morning-buyback-illusion/) 2. [8The buyback illusion](/blog/2026-07-26-morning-buyback-illusion/) 3. [8The buyback illusion](/blog/2026-07-26-morning-buyback-illusion/) 4. [8The buyback illusion](/blog/2026-07-26-morning-buyback-illusion/) 5. [8The buyback illusion](/blog/2026-07-26-morning-buyback-illusion/) 6. [8The buyback illusion](/blog/2026-07-26-morning-buyback-illusion/) 7. [8The buyback illusion](/blog/2026-07-26-morning-buyback-illusion/) 8. [8The buyback illusion](/blog/2026-07-26-morning-buyback-illusion/) [Start at stop 1](/blog/2026-09-03-morning-three-ways-to-make-eighteen-percent/) 05All 197 notes ## Find any note. All **197**Returns and risk maths **20**Factors **22**Portfolio construction **33**Costs: MF, PMS, RupeeCase **25**Behaviour **27**Company numbers **24**Personal finance and tax **24**Strategy notes **22** Newest first, 24 of 197 1. [Confirmation bias: research or hopeLord, Ross and Lepper's 1979 study showed mixed evidence hardens both sides, and cutting at minus 15 instead of holding through minus 40 ends Rs 3.51 lakh ahead on Rs 10 lakh.Behaviour . 30 Jul 2026 . 9 min](/blog/2026-07-30-evening-confirmation-bias/) 2. [Confirmation bias: research or hopeLord, Ross and Lepper's 1979 study showed mixed evidence hardens both sides, and cutting at minus 15 instead of holding through minus 40 ends Rs 3.51 lakh ahead on Rs 10 lakh.Behaviour . 30 Jul 2026 . 9 min](/blog/2026-07-30-evening-confirmation-bias/) 3. [Confirmation bias: research or hopeLord, Ross and Lepper's 1979 study showed mixed evidence hardens both sides, and cutting at minus 15 instead of holding through minus 40 ends Rs 3.51 lakh ahead on Rs 10 lakh.Behaviour . 30 Jul 2026 . 9 min](/blog/2026-07-30-evening-confirmation-bias/) 4. [Confirmation bias: research or hopeLord, Ross and Lepper's 1979 study showed mixed evidence hardens both sides, and cutting at minus 15 instead of holding through minus 40 ends Rs 3.51 lakh ahead on Rs 10 lakh.Behaviour . 30 Jul 2026 . 9 min](/blog/2026-07-30-evening-confirmation-bias/) 5. [Confirmation bias: research or hopeLord, Ross and Lepper's 1979 study showed mixed evidence hardens both sides, and cutting at minus 15 instead of holding through minus 40 ends Rs 3.51 lakh ahead on Rs 10 lakh.Behaviour . 30 Jul 2026 . 9 min](/blog/2026-07-30-evening-confirmation-bias/) 6. [Confirmation bias: research or hopeLord, Ross and Lepper's 1979 study showed mixed evidence hardens both sides, and cutting at minus 15 instead of holding through minus 40 ends Rs 3.51 lakh ahead on Rs 10 lakh.Behaviour . 30 Jul 2026 . 9 min](/blog/2026-07-30-evening-confirmation-bias/) 7. [Confirmation bias: research or hopeLord, Ross and Lepper's 1979 study showed mixed evidence hardens both sides, and cutting at minus 15 instead of holding through minus 40 ends Rs 3.51 lakh ahead on Rs 10 lakh.Behaviour . 30 Jul 2026 . 9 min](/blog/2026-07-30-evening-confirmation-bias/) 8. [Confirmation bias: research or hopeLord, Ross and Lepper's 1979 study showed mixed evidence hardens both sides, and cutting at minus 15 instead of holding through minus 40 ends Rs 3.51 lakh ahead on Rs 10 lakh.Behaviour . 30 Jul 2026 . 9 min](/blog/2026-07-30-evening-confirmation-bias/) 9. [Confirmation bias: research or hopeLord, Ross and Lepper's 1979 study showed mixed evidence hardens both sides, and cutting at minus 15 instead of holding through minus 40 ends Rs 3.51 lakh ahead on Rs 10 lakh.Behaviour . 30 Jul 2026 . 9 min](/blog/2026-07-30-evening-confirmation-bias/) 10. [Confirmation bias: research or hopeLord, Ross and Lepper's 1979 study showed mixed evidence hardens both sides, and cutting at minus 15 instead of holding through minus 40 ends Rs 3.51 lakh ahead on Rs 10 lakh.Behaviour . 30 Jul 2026 . 9 min](/blog/2026-07-30-evening-confirmation-bias/) 11. [Confirmation bias: research or hopeLord, Ross and Lepper's 1979 study showed mixed evidence hardens both sides, and cutting at minus 15 instead of holding through minus 40 ends Rs 3.51 lakh ahead on Rs 10 lakh.Behaviour . 30 Jul 2026 . 9 min](/blog/2026-07-30-evening-confirmation-bias/) 12. [Confirmation bias: research or hopeLord, Ross and Lepper's 1979 study showed mixed evidence hardens both sides, and cutting at minus 15 instead of holding through minus 40 ends Rs 3.51 lakh ahead on Rs 10 lakh.Behaviour . 30 Jul 2026 . 9 min](/blog/2026-07-30-evening-confirmation-bias/) 13. [Confirmation bias: research or hopeLord, Ross and Lepper's 1979 study showed mixed evidence hardens both sides, and cutting at minus 15 instead of holding through minus 40 ends Rs 3.51 lakh ahead on Rs 10 lakh.Behaviour . 30 Jul 2026 . 9 min](/blog/2026-07-30-evening-confirmation-bias/) 14. [Confirmation bias: research or hopeLord, Ross and Lepper's 1979 study showed mixed evidence hardens both sides, and cutting at minus 15 instead of holding through minus 40 ends Rs 3.51 lakh ahead on Rs 10 lakh.Behaviour . 30 Jul 2026 . 9 min](/blog/2026-07-30-evening-confirmation-bias/) 15. [Confirmation bias: research or hopeLord, Ross and Lepper's 1979 study showed mixed evidence hardens both sides, and cutting at minus 15 instead of holding through minus 40 ends Rs 3.51 lakh ahead on Rs 10 lakh.Behaviour . 30 Jul 2026 . 9 min](/blog/2026-07-30-evening-confirmation-bias/) 16. [Confirmation bias: research or hopeLord, Ross and Lepper's 1979 study showed mixed evidence hardens both sides, and cutting at minus 15 instead of holding through minus 40 ends Rs 3.51 lakh ahead on Rs 10 lakh.Behaviour . 30 Jul 2026 . 9 min](/blog/2026-07-30-evening-confirmation-bias/) 17. [Confirmation bias: research or hopeLord, Ross and Lepper's 1979 study showed mixed evidence hardens both sides, and cutting at minus 15 instead of holding through minus 40 ends Rs 3.51 lakh ahead on Rs 10 lakh.Behaviour . 30 Jul 2026 . 9 min](/blog/2026-07-30-evening-confirmation-bias/) 18. [Confirmation bias: research or hopeLord, Ross and Lepper's 1979 study showed mixed evidence hardens both sides, and cutting at minus 15 instead of holding through minus 40 ends Rs 3.51 lakh ahead on Rs 10 lakh.Behaviour . 30 Jul 2026 . 9 min](/blog/2026-07-30-evening-confirmation-bias/) 19. [Confirmation bias: research or hopeLord, Ross and Lepper's 1979 study showed mixed evidence hardens both sides, and cutting at minus 15 instead of holding through minus 40 ends Rs 3.51 lakh ahead on Rs 10 lakh.Behaviour . 30 Jul 2026 . 9 min](/blog/2026-07-30-evening-confirmation-bias/) 20. [Confirmation bias: research or hopeLord, Ross and Lepper's 1979 study showed mixed evidence hardens both sides, and cutting at minus 15 instead of holding through minus 40 ends Rs 3.51 lakh ahead on Rs 10 lakh.Behaviour . 30 Jul 2026 . 9 min](/blog/2026-07-30-evening-confirmation-bias/) 21. [Confirmation bias: research or hopeLord, Ross and Lepper's 1979 study showed mixed evidence hardens both sides, and cutting at minus 15 instead of holding through minus 40 ends Rs 3.51 lakh ahead on Rs 10 lakh.Behaviour . 30 Jul 2026 . 9 min](/blog/2026-07-30-evening-confirmation-bias/) 22. [Confirmation bias: research or hopeLord, Ross and Lepper's 1979 study showed mixed evidence hardens both sides, and cutting at minus 15 instead of holding through minus 40 ends Rs 3.51 lakh ahead on Rs 10 lakh.Behaviour . 30 Jul 2026 . 9 min](/blog/2026-07-30-evening-confirmation-bias/) 23. [Confirmation bias: research or hopeLord, Ross and Lepper's 1979 study showed mixed evidence hardens both sides, and cutting at minus 15 instead of holding through minus 40 ends Rs 3.51 lakh ahead on Rs 10 lakh.Behaviour . 30 Jul 2026 . 9 min](/blog/2026-07-30-evening-confirmation-bias/) 24. [Confirmation bias: research or hopeLord, Ross and Lepper's 1979 study showed mixed evidence hardens both sides, and cutting at minus 15 instead of holding through minus 40 ends Rs 3.51 lakh ahead on Rs 10 lakh.Behaviour . 30 Jul 2026 . 9 min](/blog/2026-07-30-evening-confirmation-bias/) Show more 06Keep up ## New notes land here first. [RSS feedThe newest 50 notes, with their cards, in any reader.](/instiv2/blog/feed.xml) [Podcast archive155 episodes of The Tanmay Edge, every prediction graded.](/podcast/) [LearnThe free course on systematic investing in Indian markets.](/learn/) [Sign up for RupeeCase](https://invest.rupeecase.com/signup)[Learn it free](/learn/) Explore next ## Where to go next. * [ToolsAll 25 free calculatorsReturns, costs, risk, tax and goals](/learn/tools) * [StrategiesAll 18 RupeeCase strategiesRules, model back tests and minimums](/strategies/) * [GlossaryInvesting glossary, 91 termsPlain word definitions](/learn/glossary) * [SitemapEvery page on RupeeCaseThe full site map, one page](/sitemap)